Former NFL GM and personnel executive Mike Lombardi, whose work experience ranges from working under Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis to being Cleveland Browns’ GM to an executive working with the Patriots’ Bill Belichick, said recently that everyone can produce a mock draft and how a guy in Des Moines, Iowa basement can produce one.
But, what do the “experts” have to say about the upcoming 2017 NFL draft? Who will go as the top pick in the first round? Who will hear their name on Day One? Let’s take a look at the consensus for the NFL draft from the NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah, Bucky Brooks, Mike Mayock and ESPN’s Mel Kiper.
(Note: If two experts pick the same player, and the other two pick two different players, I went with the player chosen by two experts. If there is no clear-cut player, it is “No consensus.”)
- Cleveland Browns: Myles Garrett, defensive end (Consensus pick by all four)
- San Francisco: Jamal Adams, safety
- Chicago: Marcus Lattimore, safety (consensus pick by all four)
- Jacksonville: Leonard Fournette, running back
- Tennessee: Soloman Thomas, defensive tackle
- New York Jets: OJ Howard, tight end
- Los Angeles Chargers: Malik Hooker, safety
- Carolina: Christian McCaffrey, running back/offensive weapon
- Cincinatti: Reuben Foster, linebacker
- Buffalo: No consensus
- New Orleans: No consensus
- Cleveland: Mitchell Trubisky, quarterback
- Arizona: Patrick Mahomes, quarterback
- Philadelphia: No consensus
- Indianapolis: No consensus
- Baltimore: No consensus
- Washington: No consensus
- Tennessee: No consensus
- Tampa Bay: Dalvin Cook, running back
- Denver: Ryan Ramcyzk, offensive tackle
- Detroit: Jarrad Davis, linebacker
- Miami: No consensus
- New York Giants: Garrett Bolles, offensive tackle
- Oakland: No consensus
- Houston: Cam Robinson, offensive tackle
- Seattle: No consensus
- Kansas City: No consensus
- Dallas: No consensus
- Green Bay: No consensus
- Pittsburgh: No consensus
- Atlanta: No consensus
- New Orleans: Adoree’ Jackson, wide receiver/special teams weapon
Here are the mock drafts from the experts:
|Daniel Jeremiah||Bucky Brooks||Mel Kiper||Mike Mayock|
|1. Myles Garrett||Myles Garrett||Myles Garrett||Myles Garrett|
|2. Jamal Adams||Jamal Adams||Soloman Thomas||Jamal Adams|
|3. Marcus Lattimore||Marcus Lattimore||Jamal Adams||Marcus Lattimore|
|4. Leonard Fournette||Leonard Fournette||Jonathan Allen||Leonard Fournette|
|5. Soloman Thomas||Soloman Thomas||Reuben Foster||Mitchell Trubisky (to Tennessee in trade w/Cleveland)|
|6. OJ Howard||Deshaun Watson||OJ Howard||OJ Howard|
|7. Malik Hooker||Malik Hooker||Mike Williams||Soloman Thomas|
|8. Christian McCaffrey||Jonathan Allen||Christian McCaffrey||Christian McCaffrey|
|9. Reuben Foster||Reuben Foster||Haason Reddick||Jonathan Allen|
|10. Haason Reddick||Mike Williams||Jabrill Peppers||Reuben Foster|
|11. Marlon Humphrey||Derek Barnett||Marcus Lattimore||Charles Harris|
|12. Mitchell Trubisky||OJ Howard||Mitchell Trubisky||John Ross (to Cleveland in trade w/Tennessee)|
|13. Patrick Mahomes||Patrick Mahomes||Corey Davis||Marlon Humphrey|
|14. Derek Barnett||Christian McCaffrey||Gareon Conley||Mike Williams|
|15. Charles Harris||Takkarist McKinley||Leonard Fournette||Derek Barnett|
|16. Mike Williams||Corey Davis||Forrest Lamp||Haason Reddick|
|17. Jonathan Allen||Mitchell Trubisky||Malik Hooker||Takkarist McKinley|
|18. Corey Davis||John Ross||Marlon Humphrey||Adoree’ Jackson|
|19. Dalvin Cook||Dalvin Cook||John Ross||Malik Hooker|
|20. Ryan Ramcyzk||Ryan Ramcyzk||Ryan Ramcyzk||Ryan Ramcyzk|
|21. Jarrad Davis||Jarrad Davis||Kevin King||Corey Davis|
|22. Forrest Lamp||Taco Charlton||Jarrad Davis||TJ Watt|
|23. David Njoku||Garrett Bolles||Charles Harris||Garrett Bolles|
|24. Gareon Conley||Haason Reddick||Tre’Davious White||Cam Robinson|
|25. Cam Robinson||Cam Robinson||Cam Robinson||Deshaun Watson|
|26. Garrett Bolles||Obi Melifonwu||Garrett Bolles||Forrest Lamp|
|27. Deshaun Watson||Gareon Conley||Zach Cunningham||Dalvin Cook|
|28. Adoree’ Jackson||Charles Harris||Derek Barnett||Tre’Davious White|
|29. TJ Watt||Joe Mixon||Takkarist McKinley||Alvin Kamara|
|30. Evan Engram||DeShone Kizer||Zay Jones||Jordan Willis|
|31. Kevin King||Forrest Lamp||Taco Charlton||Jabrill Peppers|
|32. Takkarist McKinley||Adoree’ Jackson||Adoree’ Jackson||Patrick Mahomes (to Arizona in trade w/New Orleans)|
Defensive End: Bronson Kaufusi (BYU), Yannick Ngakoue (Maryland)
Two sleepers? Yes. Why? Because defensive ends are a high premium for NFL teams after seeing the Denver Broncos dominate a great Carolina Panthers team at the line of scrimmage. Teams are looking for defensive ends to harass NFL quarterbacks.
Kaufusi is 6’6”, weighs 285 and will probably be drafted in the third to fourth round. Why? His stats aren’t too shabby: Bronson had 64 tackles, 20 of which were for a loss, 11 sacks, 1 interception and 3 forced fumbles. He has good size and speed and could be a valuable third-down pass-rush asset for NFL defenses. But, a big question mark is getting off blocks. (Disclaimer: I am a BYU graduate).
Ngakoue (pronounced En-Gah-kway) is a hybrid outside linebacker/defensive end and played against Big Ten offensive line talent. He is 6’2” and weighs 252 pounds. He could go as high as the 2nd round, but I’d think he’d fall maybe to the 3rd round. He wreaked havoc last season, with 13.5 sacks, 38 total tackles (15 tackles for a loss), with 1 fumble and 1 pass break-up. He is long, he has speed, and he has the stats and tape to back it up. As WalterFootball pointed out, he owned Brandon Scherff, who was the 5th-overall pick for the Washington Redskins last year, when they faced each other in 2014. (Second disclaimer: I’m also a Maryland fan :D)
Defensive Tackle: Jonathan Bullard, Florida
6’3”, 285 pounds.
Bullard was one of the best SEC run defenders in 2015, according to WalterFootball. One of my favorite NFL analysts, former NFL scout Daniel Jeremiah, is high on him and pointed out how Bullard dominated SEC offensive linemen. But, he is smaller than NFL teams would like, which is why he could end up going (at the latest) in the 2nd round. He had 17.5 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks and 2 batted passes, with 66 total tackles. He needs to add weight, but his track record in the SEC speaks for itself.
Cornerback: Cyrus Jones, Alabama
5’9”, 196 pounds. 4.49 40-time.
Jones is better known for his special teams plays and special package plays on defense, where he played in corner-heavy packages (nickel or dime). His speed is out of this world on the field and he showed up a lot in big games, for better and for worse. Height is a large concern because of bigger tight ends and wide receivers. He did have 2 interceptions last season as a senior, and 3 as a junior.
But, I believe could be a Devon Hester-type player, where his best talent is on special teams, then he learns the position as time goes on. Yes, wide receiver is slightly easier to learn, as it is more proactive than reactive, but if Jones is one of those solid Alabama Crimson Tide players that the school boasts about, he’ll learn and develop to be a solid nickel corner in a pass-happy NFL. Jones will probably go between the 4th to 6th round and will be a steal if he develops well.
Linebacker: Blake Martinez, Stanford
6’0”, 233 pounds.
Stanford churns out NFL talent, maybe not top-end talent, but consistent talent. Martinez is one of those blue-collar linebacking types, like former Stanford linebacker Trent Murphy (who is transitioning from linebacker to defensive line this year for the Washington Redskins). Martinez was a tackle machine, with 141 total tackles, 6.5 for loss, 1 interception, 1.5 sacks, 6 pass break-ups. He is a steady Eddie, as the saying goes, and will get the job done.
Martinez is no Luke Kuechly, but is that stout, inside linebacker that will make the right plays. Also, Stanford coach David Shaw doesn’t coach idiots. Martinez is projected to go between the third and fifth round of the draft.
Safety: Sean Davis, Maryland
6’1”, 201 pounds, 4.46 40-time.
Davis shifted around in Maryland’s defense from corner to safety and at times, a small linebacker. He had 88 tackles last year on a so-so football team in a tough Big Ten division (facing the likes of Ohio State) and had 3 interceptions. Not an impressive resume, per se, but he is athletic, he can cover and stay in the box to guard against the run. Although, his versatility impresses NFL scouts.
Major concerns are whether he can keep up with top speed talent in the NFL and read the quarterback’s eyes correctly. Some scouting reports point out that he is often beat on double moves, and is inconsistent in covering receivers as he is more of a hard-hitting safety. A lot of scouts are hyping him up, but remember, his ceiling is maybe the 3rd round and floor is the 5th round.
Quarterback: Cody Kessler, USC
6’1”, 220 pounds.
A lot of people love Brandon Allen out of Arkansas, who is pro-ready and a gutsy QB from the SEC. But, Cody is a three-year starter out of the PAC12 and he works in a pro-style offense, albeit more of a West Coast offense (i.e. short passes and not too many deep balls). Per NFL.com, Kessler threw for 3,536 yards with a 66.8 completion percentage in 2015 and he is not turnover-prone (Cody threw 39 touchdowns, five interceptions in 2014; 29 TD, 7 INT in 2015). Not too many college QBs can put that on their resume.
However, he lacks deep ball arm strength and struggles throwing while moving out of the pocket. But, the kid can play, he played through a cloud of sanctions and won games. He’ll be a round 5 draft pick and will be a short project of 1-2 years, if not sooner.
Running Back: Jonathan Williams, Arkansas
5’10”, 219 pounds, projected 40 time 4.58 (was injured, didn’t participate much at combines or pro day).
WalterFootball.com said the following about Williams, which has been echoed by the likes of draft gurus Daniel Jeremiah and Bucky Brooks (both former NFL scouts now working at NFL Network):
“As a runner, Williams has tremendous balance and an impressive ability to pick up yards after contact. He has a good body lean and runs with power. Sources from some teams are targeting Williams in the mid-rounds and think he could be a steal because of his injury. Williams also has drawn rave reviews off the field, and his teammates have gushed about him in team interviews.”
“Williams would be the feature back at most schools, but he’s the backup for Arkansas. He still ran for 1,190 yards (5.6 average) and 12 touchdowns on only 211 carries in 2014 while Alex Collins was the lead back. Williams also had 11 receptions for 65 yards and two scores. He is a physical runner who could enter the NFL with fresh legs.”
Enough said; he’ll be a steal between rounds 3-5 at the draft.
Wide Receiver: Michael Thomas, Southern Miss (Southern Mississippi)
6’1”, 186 pounds, 4.54 40-time.
Thomas is a sleeper because he went to a non-Power 5 school, but he increased his production from 2014 to 2015 (from Pride of Detroit):
Plus, his yards-after-catch (known as YAC) is one of the best among a weak WR crop this draft year:
— Luke Easterling (@LukeEasterling) January 6, 2016
He has some issues catching the ball, but he’s athletic and can take the top off the defense and stretch the field vertically. He’ll be a round 5 or round 6 pick and could develop very well.
Tight End: Thomas Duarte
6’2”, 231 pounds, 4.72 40-time.
The Mexican-Japanese-American tight end out of UCLA impressed some scouts with not only his play on the field, but his heritage. He joked that he got the best food of both worlds in an interview with Fox Sports’ Bruce Feldman. But, he is a pass-catching tight end that produced at the famous Mater Dei High School (which has produced the likes of Matt Leinart) and at UCLA. As a freshman, had 16 catches for 214 yards and 4 TDs, and then as a sophomore, caught 28 passes for 540 yards and 4 TDs. With Josh Rosen as his signal-caller, he caught 53 balls for 872 yards (a 16.5-yards-per-catch average) and 10 TDs.
Scouts have compared him to Jordan Reed. He can’t block, but he can get out in space, run routes and wreak havoc on opposing defenses. That’s not a bad comparison. He’ll be picked anywhere between the mid-to-low 3rd round to the 5th round and has to bulk up, learn how to block a little bit, and he’ll be a longtime NFL tight end.
Offensive Line: Le-Raven Clark, Texas Tech, offensive tackle
6’5”, 316 pounds.
Not a deep offensive line class, outside of Tunsil and Conklin, but Clark is an athletic specimen on the field. Yes, he’ll be gone by the third round, which begs the question, is he really a sleeper? But, this is a thin offensive line class and he could become a future offensive line anchor sooner rather than later.
Consensus among scouts is that his technique is not perfect, but he does have quick feet. A big part of being a tackle is how he bends, and he is a good ‘bender’ to deal with the faster defensive ends who can get low to the ground. But, there are few mentions of how good his hands are at the point of attack, which worries me. You need good hands to keep up with all the moves by defensive linemen and linebackers these days. Ever see a JJ Watt spin move or a quick bend speed rush by Von Miller? Clark be mincemeat if he faces them without improving his hands. That aside, he’ll be a good pick with a lot of upside and potential.
I’m having too much fun with this stats game, but I hope you’re enjoying it as well. This time, we’re looking at 3 great WR’s in the league.
Catches — receiving yards — yards per game — yards per catch — TDs
WR 1: 66 — 1,084 — 83.4 — 16.4 — 12
WR 2: 61 — 860 — 66.2 — 14.1 — 11
WR 3: 96 — 1,088 — 83.7 — 11.3 — 7
WR 1 is one of two receivers with a first name of Allen on his team in Florida, a yearly bottom-feeder in the AFC South division. He is a second-year pro and whose alma mater was Penn State.
WR 2 has been with the same team since his professional debut in 2011 after heading to the draft from Stanford. He’s having a breakout season with Russell Wilson at the helm of his team.
WR 3 is probably a future Hall of Fame WR and has played for the same team for his entire career in Arizona. He’s made one Super Bowl appearance and is widely known as a top receiver who can catch any ball thrown in his direction.
Allen Robinson, Doug Baldwin, Larry Fitzgerald
Stats don’t lie! Let’s take a look at 3 starting RB’s numbers this 2015 season and have fun with this.
Rushing yards — yards per game — yards per carry — TDs
RB 1: 1,023 — 85.2 — 4.9 — 9
RB 2: 951 — 73.2 — 4.1 — 7
RB 3: 773 — 59.5 — 4.7 — 8
RB 1 is a rookie and was a first-round draft pick in the last draft. In college, he played for the University of Georgia and was injured in the season before he went pro.
RB 2 is a hard-nosed RB that plays in the Big Apple. An undrafted free agent when he came into the league in 2010, he’s the feature running back for an AFC East team that wears green and white.
RB 3 is a veteran RB who is playing well for an AFC North team, trying to replace the team’s starting RB who was lost to injury earlier this year. He played at Memphis in his college days and had only played for one team in Carolina until this season.
Todd Gurley, Chris Ivory, DeAngelo Williams
One of my favorite drills is to look at statistics, but to guess whose stats is whose. So let’s take a look at 3 starting NFL QB’s and see who is surprisingly good this 2015 NFL season.
Completion % — Yards — Yards per game — TDs/INTs — Sacks
QB 1: 65.8% — 3,705 — 285 — 17/14 — 26
QB 2: 57.5% — 3,524 — 271.1 — 30/13 — 39
QB 3: 62.6% — 3,027 — 252.2 — 16/7 — 19
QB 1 is often heralded as a great regular season quarterback, but just can’t do it in the postseason and plays in a dome for home games. He came into the league from Boston College and for a couple years, played with future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez. He plays in the NFC South division.
QB 2 was considered a project when he was drafted in the top five in his draft class and was a late bloomer at a smaller Power 5 school in Florida. His numbers have exploded this year for his yearly cellar-dwelling team in Florida in the AFC South division.
QB 3 is the prototypical gunslinger, often criticized by both fans and media for his laid-back attitude. He played at Vanderbilt before being drafted by Denver (not his current team). He plays in the NFC North division and is married to a former reality TV star.
Answers? Any guesses?
Matt Ryan, Blake Bortles, Jay Cutler
A couple of thoughts after BYU’s humiliation at the hands of the Jim Harbaugh-led Michigan Wolverines…
But first, this Hail Mary play vs. Nebraska was amazing.
3 consecutive 8-5 seasons: Is that good enough for BYU fans?
- The last double-digit win season was 4 seasons ago in 2011 with 10 wins.
- If BYU is to be considered a top team, it has to consistently win in the double digits and suffer maybe 2 losses maximum (see: Ohio State, Alabama, Oregon, Baylor, TCU, Michigan State).
- Counterpoint: BYU sports is an extension of the academic mission of BYU, so it won’t receive the same amount as investment as say, Alabama football.
- Many programs would do almost anything to reach 8 wins and be bowl-eligible every year AND have the independent schedule and contract with ESPN.
Independent schedule has tougher road games, easier home schedule
- 2015 at Michigan: LOSS 31-0
- 2015 at UCLA: LOSS 24-23
- 2015 at Nebraska: WIN 33-28
- 2014 at Wisconsin: LOSS 27-17
- 2014 at Notre Dame: LOSS 23-17
- 2014 at Texas: WIN 41-7
- Home schedule was not challenging, featured the likes of Nevada, Savannah State, UNLV (2014) and Middle Tennessee State and Idaho State (2013).
Injuries have crippled and ended promising seasons
- Taysom Hill’s injuries ended promising seasons and he was a dark horse Heisman candidate.
- However, injuries don’t solely target BYU.
- Example: University of Maryland’s 2012 season where 4 QBs went down with injuries and they started a backup LB as their QB in Shawn Petty. Cry me a river, BYU fans.
Robert Anae’s play-calling
- Where do you start? Run instead of passing, passing instead of running the ball?
- But I see some consistencies over the years at BYU and with their offensive line.
- What do I see? Bad offensive line splits with huge gaps between offensive linemen. It helps with pass protection, but it inhibits the run game by requiring linemen to move more laterally. BYU’s offensive linemen aren’t exactly the fleetest of foot.
- Also, lack of big, tall WRs and TEs who will go and “high point” the ball. Or, in other words, no receiver who will go up and get the 50-50 ball in the air. There isn’t another Cody Hoffman-type big guy who can consistently grab red zone TD passes thrown toward him.
Well, if you do push Bronco out at BYU (which is almost a 0% chance), who do you replace him with?
- Beware of up-and-coming NFL coordinators like Gary Crowton (h/t Paul Sabin).
- My choice? Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell.
- Why? Everyone remembers that one play in the Super Bowl, but he’s made 2 Super Bowls and won one of them.
- Pete Carroll backed Bevell up, said he wanted to preserve the clock as they were out of timeouts and shied away from a run call for that reason.
- Malcolm Butler made a play of the year in jumping that pick route and timed it perfectly.
- Also, Marshawn Lynch struggled on short-yardage situations in the red zone, although Sporting News still blasts Bevell’s play call.
- However, remember that 2015 Week 1 vs. St. Louis Rams play? Stuffed by the Rams.
- He’s run an efficient, run-heavy offense in the NFL.
- He’s developed Russell Wilson, a third-round QB draft pick and who was undersized, into a franchise QB. Wilson, by the way, just signed an offseason deal worth $87 million over 4 years.
- Why? Everyone remembers that one play in the Super Bowl, but he’s made 2 Super Bowls and won one of them.
Honor Code and Recruiting
- Honor Code inhibits recruiting with abstinence from premarital sex and use of alcohol and drugs. This will continue to be BYU’s policy and it is non-negotiable.
- Bronco relies a lot on JUCO transfers and it can be hard to develop JUCO talent at times.
- The mission effect: Older athletes may have lost a step or two as conditioning is not a top priority for some missionaries.
Why not shift to the spread?
- Even Nick Saban doesn’t like the spread as a defensive genius and it is hard to stop, as TCU, Baylor, and Texas Tech have shown with their prolific offenses.
- Baylor and other inferior teams succeed with short, quick passes, less hits on the QB and can beat teams with tempo. Lower-tiered teams like Bowling Green has successfully adopted the spread offense. BYU can succeed and go back to the offensive masterpieces of old and hide their inferior talent and lack of depth.
Any thoughts? Reactions?