BCS Title Game: The What-Ifs

auburn iron bowl returnFunny story, well, sorta. So I had started this blog post last weekend before the Alabama-Auburn game. How did I start my draft?

“Unless something monumental happens, say an Alabama or Florida State loss, I want to break down the numbers behind the numbers for this potential BCS title game. Thank goodness it’s the last year of this terrible computer and poll ranking system!”

Enter in the last-second touchdown by Auburn to beat defending champion Alabama on the road in the Iron Bowl rivalry game. Now for the Auburn and Alabama radio calls:

Guys, I love the “AUBURN IS GONNA WIN THE FOOTBALL GAME!…HOLY COW!” line. Just classic!

Now, things have completely changed. As of right now, here’s what the BCS rankings look like (via ESPN.com):


BCS

 

RK TEAM

AVG

PVS

RK

1 Florida State

.9948

2

1

2 Ohio State

.9503

3

2

3 Auburn

.9233

4

3

4 Alabama

.8539

1

4

5 Missouri

.8428

5

 5

BCS title game will be, as of today, between Ohio State and Florida State if both of them win out in their conference title games. Unless Ohio State or Florida State lose, no one else will make the title game. Alabama will not compete for a third consecutive national title since their season is OVER.

But, here are some alternate scenarios:

famous jameis thumbs up

If FSU wins in the ACC Championship game and OSU loses to Michigan State in the B1G Ten Championship game AND Auburn wins the SEC Championship game vs. Mizzou…

  • FSU will face Auburn in the title game.
  • This puts Jameis Winston vs. Nick Marshall in a QB battle that could boost viewer ratings, considering Auburn beat ‘Bama last week.
  • Both defenses are pretty good, but FSU’s is statistically better at 1st in the nation with points scored on them at 11 points per game while Auburn’s defense ranks 31st in the nation, giving up 22.5 points per game.
  • FSU’s offense averages 321.3 yards through the air and 204.8 on the ground, ranking 14th and 30th in the country. Auburn’s offense passes for 172.8 yards per game (105th in the nation) and an eye-dropping 318.3 yards on the ground (good for 5th in the nation).
  • Winner: FSU in a shootout UNLESS Auburn gets rolling on the ground.

NCAA Football: Missouri vs. San Diego State SEP 18

If FSU wins in the ACC Championship game and OSU loses to Michigan State in the B1G Ten Championship game AND Mizzou wins the SEC Championship game vs. Auburn…

  • FSU faces Mizzou.
  • Why? Alabama has an almost-impossible shot to go to the title game  since their season is over and little chance to improve their BCS computer rankings score.
  • Mizzou is ranked 42nd in passing yards (252.6 per game) and 18th in rushing yards (236.9 per game) and only gives up 19.4 points per game (14th in the nation).
  • FSU has the number 1 defense that gives up 11 points per game and whose balanced offense is 14th and 30th in passing and rushing yards per game.
  • Winner: FSU in a beatdown as Mizzou doesn’t stop “Famous Jameis” Winston.

auburn football iron bowl

If FSU loses to Duke and OSU wins vs. Michigan State AND Auburn wins vs. Mizzou…

  • OSU will face Auburn.
  • OSU has a horrible defense, giving up 20.3 points per game (including 35 to a struggling Michigan Wolverines team last week in thrilling rivalry game), but whose offense on the ground is 2nd in the nation at 321.3 yards per game and 83rd overall passing offense (209.3 yards per game).
  • OSU QB Braxton Miller and RB Carlos Hyde could really put pressure on Auburn’s defense, but I trust Auburn’s defense more than OSU’s.
  • Winner: Auburn in a shootout.

ohio state carlos hyde

If FSU loses, OSU wins AND Mizzou wins vs. Auburn…

  • OSU will face Mizzou.
  • Winner: I like Mizzou in this one because they have a stouter defense and played in a slightly-tougher SEC conference. Miller and Hyde can only carry OSU so far.

What do you think of my predictions? Who will be in the title game?

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About Spencer Irvine

Fun loving, D.C. area sports fan, which means I'm frustrated and still can't get a grip on what a win truly means (or a championship for that matter).

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